The NexOSRadar Readout

One call settled this week, and it settled in a courtroom in Reno. A Washoe County judge halted Tract's arbitration against NV Energy and sent the fight over power for Tract's data centers to Nevada's utility commission first, which is a ruling on the question call #31 asked; the Scorecard grades it a hit, argued, and prints the case against beside the case for. This Is Reno, 10/22 The record is 20 hits, 9 misses and 27 on the clock: three calls logged on October 16 carried their seven days and entered the table, and one left it. Issue 13 The hit costs the score. A call that comes true at 45 percent scores worse than this paper's average call, so the running Brier rises from 0.213 to 0.216, about a thousandth behind a forecaster who says "two in three" every time, the first time this paper has trailed that forecaster since it began printing the comparison in Issue 12. Issue 12 Two rulings this paper owed are made below, before the outcomes they govern: which count of ships through Hormuz is read against call #9, and what counts as the docket in call #43.

The ocean did the week's most useful thing for the ledger. A tenth Atlantic storm formed on Wednesday afternoon several hundred miles east of the Chesapeake, was named Josephine, peaked at 55 knots as a subtropical storm, and was declared extratropical on Thursday evening without ever becoming a hurricane; the season's hurricane count, which is the only count call #48 reads, is still one. NHC Discussion 5, 10/22 · NHC season table On land, PJM told its members on Thursday that it will file its revised backstop with FERC on October 29, which is the day call #52 settles, so the call is tracking YES on a promise dated for its own deadline. PJM presentation, 10/22 And the filing this paper said last week was due by about October 23 was not on EDGAR on Friday: a full-text search before dawn found three S-1s this month that mention Anthropic, all by other companies, and the same search in the early afternoon found the same three; reporting attributed to Reuters says the company means to file as soon as Friday. SEC EDGAR, read 10/23 · SBS citing Reuters, 10/23 Call #49 has until November 30, and the Stack says what the two days left in last week's sentence are worth.

The war had its worst month on the count that matters. Lloyd's List Intelligence's brief of October 22 counts at least 28 attacks or incidents in the Strait of Hormuz in October, the most of any month of the war, and transits of 104 a week, down from 126. Lloyd's List Intelligence, 10/22 The only American plan reported was for after the election, through a relay, and the paper does not price it. Russia put at least 21 ballistic missiles into Kyiv overnight into Friday, after a Saturday night that left 550,000 households dark, and both Moscow and Washington's envoy spent the week saying there is no ceasefire. Reuters via Internazionale, 10/23 · ISW, 10/19 Oil held above $100 on both benchmarks and the physical Brent barrel's premium over the contract fell from twenty-odd dollars to about nine, which is still a premium. EIA, 10/21

Elsewhere, Sweden's Speaker gave the question of a government to the Centre Party's leader instead of nominating Ulf Kristersson, and she reports back on Monday morning; the Riksdag has used one of its four votes. Riksdagen, 10/23 Seoul's index, which fell 8 percent in a day last week, moved more than 3 percent on three of this week's five sessions, and the central bank held. KED Global, 10/22 In Irkutsk the conference that moved on the day it was due to open now has an order number, No. 832 of October 21, on the institute's own website, and still no reason. Irkutsk institute, read 10/23 The Carry has it, and the New Calls price it.

This issue also prints its own defects. The research behind it ran into a shared search limit that its own caps exceeded, fourteen desks given 238 searches against a limit of 200, which is the arithmetic Issue 12 got wrong and Issue 13 got right, and into a fetch tool that refused primary pages until a search had surfaced them; a second pass of twelve desks ran on the gaps, and the Corrections say what was still not reached. A usage limit then stopped the work for most of Friday morning, which is why an issue due in the morning posts in the afternoon. And a price call this paper wrote on Brent named an instrument that will not exist on its own settling date, and is printed as a near miss instead of being logged.

Week Zero (logged 7/17, graded in Issue 1 with the answer sheet out): 2 hits, 1 miss. Exhibition. Doesn't count.

Running Brier score on the twenty-nine settled calls: 0.216, against a coin's 0.250 and 0.215 for a forecaster who says "two in three" every time. Up from 0.213 on twenty-eight, because the one call that settled came true at 45 percent, and a hit called below even money adds more to the score than this paper's average call does, while the forecaster who says two in three every time gains on every hit. Issue 13

What moved this week:

One call settled, a hit. Three carried their seven days and enter the full table. Three new calls open below, beside the three the early read opened on October 22, and all six enter next issue. The gridiron line, kept outside this record, went one, one and a push, and is tallied where it lives.

One grade, argued, and two rulings.

Call #31, HIT, argued, and the case against is printed at the same size. The call: a Nevada court rules, by December 31, 2026, on whether the NV Energy-Tract data-center power dispute proceeds through private arbitration or through the Public Utilities Commission of Nevada. Its kill: no ruling is issued by that date. It was logged at 45 percent on September 4. Issue 7 On Tuesday, which this paper reads as October 20 because the report gives the day and not the date, Judge Scott Freeman of the Second Judicial District Court in Washoe County granted NV Energy's request to halt Tract's arbitration and stayed it until the Public Utilities Commission rules on two matters before it: NV Energy's 2026 integrated resource plan, and its request to approve large-load service agreements for Tract's data centers in Storey County. He found that some of Tract's claims involve the regulation of utility rates and service and lie "beyond an arbitrations panel's power to award." This Is Reno, 10/22 Last issue, Tract's motion to compel arbitration and NV Energy's bid to halt it were both pending. Issue 13

The case for the grade. The call asked for a ruling on which road the dispute takes, and its kill was the absence of one. The judge chose the road: the regulator goes first, and on the claims he named, the arbitrators lack the power to decide at all. The report's own headline says he sent the fight to state regulators first. A ruling exists, on the question the call named, ten weeks before the deadline, so the kill cannot fire.

The case against, which a reader is entitled to prefer. A stay is not a final answer: when the commission rules, the arbitration can resume, and the reasoning as reported reaches some of Tract's claims, not all of them. The record is sealed, so this paper has read the ruling only as one local outlet quotes it, behind a paywall after its opening paragraphs, and has not seen the order, a case number or a date. The outlet's web address says Tract plans to appeal, and an appeal could undo it. A reader who took "proceeds through" to mean a final choice of forum will find a stay pending the regulator a smaller thing than the call promised. And counted as a miss, the record is 19 and 10 and the running Brier score is 0.212, better than the 0.216 the hit leaves. The paper grades it the way that costs it.

Two rulings, made before the outcomes they govern. Call #9: the count read against the call's line of 120 transits a week is Lloyd's List Intelligence's weekly count of non-Iranian vessels over 10,000 deadweight tons, with Kpler's figure printed beside it when one is found; the reasons are in the Wire. Call #43: a designation counts if it is made in DP 64/2026 or in a file the Audiencia Nacional has formally joined to it, and not otherwise; the reasons are in the Border. Both are made before the outcomes they could be bent to fit. Issue 13

Tracking updates, nothing else settled. #5 (calibration headline): no release led with the word; the Stack. #7 (advanced packaging): TSMC's chief executive said demand is far above supply and did not say sold out; the Stack. #9 (Gulf clock): not started, count ruled, 104 a week against a line of 120; the Wire. #17 (PJM capacity price): the backstop's results moved to May 2027, after the December auction the call reads; the Grid. #26 (Venezuela): a third round closed with a judicial committee and no date, 38 days left; the Wire. #29 (Sudan): drones over North Kordofan, no ground assault, 39 days left; the Wire. #30 (grid equipment rule): nothing new, 63 days; the Grid. #32 (measles elimination): the commission meets in November, publication date unknown; the Carry. #33 (Guinea-Bissau): no decree, 44 days; the Wire. #36 (Nvidia and Hugging Face): nothing; the Stack. #39 (Fed above 4.00 at year end): strengthened, the market between 73 and 87 depending on the venue; the Tape. #40 (Swedish PM): an exploratory round, report due Monday, one of four votes used; the Border. #42 (Colorado River suit): no second suit; the Grid. #43 (Ceuta): a treason complaint joined to the file, three councillors called for Tuesday, scope ruled; the Border. #44 (Australia and OpenAI): the company's task force named, no referral, 69 days; the Stack. #45 (Ratepayer Protection Act): pro forma sessions to November 9, six days past the deadline; the Wire. #46 (Ebola): the national count at 9,552 and WHO silent since October 8; the Carry. #47 (Lee Ferry): no ten-year figure from anyone; the Grid. #48 (one hurricane): a subtropical storm came and went; the Front. #49 (Anthropic on EDGAR): nothing under its name through Friday afternoon; the Stack. #50 (measles above 5,000): 4,410 and 591 to go, under 100 a week needed; the Carry. #51 (Fed holds October 28): strengthened, the market at 84 to 94 against this paper's 85; the Tape. #52 (PJM refiles by October 29): filing promised for the day; the Grid. #53 (arena test): no such test at the head, tracking NO; the Threshold. And the three that enter the table: #54 (named PLA exercise): live fire that does not count and a morning of 29 aircraft; the Pacific. #55 (EU budget): no figures in the conclusions, a summit dated November 26 and 27; the Border. #56 (USTR's exclusions): no notice, 18 days; the Pacific.

One grade, a hit, and the record is 20 and 9. The score got worse in a week the paper was right, because the paper had said it probably would not be; that is the score doing its job.

October is already the worst month of the tanker war by the count that matters, the Houthis reached for Riyadh's defence ministry, and the only American plan reported was for after the election.

Last issue this section said three sides had the same date circled. This week the fourth joined them in print: the operation reported through the New York Times is dated to after the midterms, and an Iranian official told the Washington Post, as the tracker relays it, that the regime is focused on raising oil prices before November 3. Critical Threats, 10/21 This paper does not price the bombing campaign, for the reason it gave last week: the intention reaches it through a relay. It notes that the one thing every party agrees on is the calendar.

Russia and Ukraine: the diesel is sailing, the ceasefire is not, and Kyiv took 21 ballistic missiles in a night. Russia's foreign minister said on October 15 there would be no ceasefire, and the Kremlin's spokesman said on the 21st that Russia needs peace, not a ceasefire. ISW, 10/15 · ISW, 10/21 The President signed an order on the night of October 16 waiving key provisions of the Senate's sanctions act for Russian diesel; Russia's deputy prime minister said the first shipment leaves on October 22, and Putin put the first tanker at 40,000 tons. ISW, 10/17 · ISW, 10/21 Steve Witkoff met Zelensky and Europeans in Oslo on October 20 and Putin in St Petersburg on the 21st; the Kremlin's aide said Putin is in principle ready for three-way talks around November 10, possibly in Abu Dhabi, and Zelensky told Fox he is open to freezing the front line. ISW, 10/21 Putin, on television on October 22, said talks must address the whole architecture of European security rather than a temporary ceasefire, and called the Donbas the territory of historical Russia. Reuters via Internazionale, 10/22 Overnight on October 18 to 19 Russia fired 16 ballistic missiles and more than 200 drones, mainly at Kyiv, hit 28 substations and left about 550,000 households without power in 15 regions, killing at least four; Ukraine's prime minister counts 2,147 strikes on energy since July 16. ISW, 10/19 Overnight into Friday, Reuters counts at least 21 ballistic missiles on Kyiv in three waves, three with cluster munitions by Zelensky's account, two dead and 34 injured nationally; Russia says 630 Ukrainian drones flew toward Moscow. Reuters via Internazionale, 10/23 Ukraine, for its part, hit the Ryazan refinery, a condensate plant at Surgut, an oil terminal and a data centre at St Petersburg and a pumping station in Tambov, and Romania's foreign minister said drones struck four vessels off Sulina, with seven crew missing from two of them. ISW, 10/18 · ISW, 10/20 ISW's ledger of ground: Ukraine has retaken about 1,080 square kilometres since January 1, and Russia has a net loss of 73 since September 1; Putin claimed 6,500 on October 16. ISW, 10/21 A ceasefire that one side announced two weeks ago now has both sides saying they do not want one.

Sanctions: five mainland Chinese entities at last, under a different law, and still no bank. On October 19 Treasury put five mainland Chinese entities, four MiraclePlus funds and management companies and one Shanghai technology company, on its non-SDN menu-based list under the outbound-investment statute, with blocking, a $10 million credit cap and banking bans. OFAC, 10/19 On October 21 it designated five Panamanian individuals, four shipping companies in Panama, Singapore and Dubai and nine vessels for Iranian oil, delisted two Shanghai animation studios from the North Korea list, and issued a Russia licence for contingent contracts to sell Lukoil's international arm. OFAC, 10/21 The October 16 action was a Venezuela licence for earthquake relief. OFAC, 10/16 The question this paper has asked since August now has half an answer: mainland Chinese entities, yes, under a law about American money going out rather than Chinese money coming in; a Chinese bank, no.

Venezuela: a judicial committee, four laws under review, a fourth round in November, and the first national protest in two years. The third round closed on October 21 at a Caracas hotel with an agreement signed by Jorge Rodríguez and Dinorah Figuera: a judicial nominations committee of 11 deputies and 12 civil-society members to be sworn in on October 22 to name 32 supreme court magistrates, four laws under review, and a fourth round on November 11 to 15. No electoral council, no date. Efecto Cocuyo, 10/22 · Efecto Cocuyo, 10/21 On October 22 the Assembly chose the committee's twelve civil-society members from 127 applicants. El Pitazo, 10/22 Figuera's personal view, as the same outlet carries it, is an election in late 2027 or early 2028. On October 22 thousands marched in Caracas, Valencia, Maracay, San Cristóbal and Maracaibo in the opposition's first national protest in nearly two years, Foro Penal counting more than 320 political prisoners, while Diosdado Cabello led a rival march and the President said it was too soon for elections. Reuters via Internazionale, 10/22 Call #26 (35 percent, settles November 30) is OPEN, tracking NO, 38 days left, and the fourth round ends 15 days before the deadline.

Sudan: Abyei, a power station, and El-Obeid still not entered. Drone strikes on Abyei on October 19 killed at least 80 people by the UN's count and 153 by a local minister's, Juba summoned Sudan's ambassador, and the UN said it was not yet able to assign responsibility. Sudan Tribune, 10/22 The UN condemned strikes across the country on October 20, a market in West Kordofan on the 18th among them, and the Tendelti power station was targeted. Darfur24, 10/21 The army retook a base 70 kilometres east of Ed Damazin in Blue Nile on October 22 and said it repelled an attack at Sally two days earlier, and it is two weeks into an air campaign on RSF-held cities in Darfur and Kordofan. Sudan Tribune, 10/22 · Sudan Tribune, 10/22 An army bomber hit a house in Abu Zaima, North Kordofan, on October 15 and killed five children, by the Emergency Lawyers' account. Sudan Tribune, 10/16 No ground assault on El-Obeid was reported anywhere this paper read. Call #29 (30 percent, settles December 1) is OPEN, tracking NO, 39 days left. The famine alert is in the Carry.

Guinea-Bissau: three weeks after every institution said December 6 cannot happen, nothing has been signed. O Democrata's pages through October 22 carry no decree, no new date and no statement from the transitional president; the record stands where it stood on October 9, with the electoral commission, the transition government and the transition council all on record that the date is impossible. O Democrata · O Democrata, 10/9 · RTP/Lusa, 10/8 Call #33 (55 percent, settles December 6) is OPEN, tracking NO hard, and the paper notes the shape of it: an election that cannot be held and has not been postponed, 44 days out.

Congress: a pro forma session every three days and one vote on November 9. The Senate convened at 9 a.m. on October 22 for a pro forma session and next convenes the same way at 5:30 p.m. on Monday, October 26, then October 29, November 2 and November 5, before returning at 3 p.m. on November 9 with a vote at 5:30. Senate floor activity · Senate Press Gallery Cloture on the motion to proceed to the Ratepayer Protection Act failed 57 to 43 on September 30 and nothing has happened since. Senate Periodical Press Gallery Call #45 (45 percent, settles November 3) is OPEN, tracking NO hard: passage now needs unanimous consent at a session marked no business expected.

Iraq and the Horn, briefly. Iraq's parliament approved four militia-linked figures to the cabinet on October 15, Baghdad closed the al-Sheeb crossing with Iran on October 21, reportedly under American pressure, and the prime minister ordered Houthi-owned offices shut. Critical Threats, 10/22 In Ethiopia, federal forces pulled back from the Eritrean border on October 17 to 19 and took Abiy Addi from Tigrayan forces on October 21, a week after the federal government suspended Tigray's interim administration for a caretaker with elections promised within six months; Ethiopia's letter to the Security Council called Eritrea's actions an all-out invasion and Eritrea called that a declaration of war. Critical Threats Africa File, 10/22 · Critical Threats Africa File, 10/15

Three elections in three days, none of which this paper prices. Brazil votes on Sunday with Datafolha's October 20 to 22 poll at 47 percent for Flávio Bolsonaro and 46 for Lula, inside its two-point margin, and Quaest at 45 to 44. Reuters via Internazionale, 10/23 · Correio 24h, 10/21 Bulgaria votes the same day for a president, 27 pairs on the ballot led by the incumbent, Iliana Iotova, with a runoff on November 1 if nobody clears half. BNT, 7/31 Israel votes on Tuesday for its 26th Knesset, about 7.3 million eligible, a 3.25 percent threshold and official results on November 4; the Walla poll of October 19 has Yashar at 23 seats, Likud at 19, the coalition bloc at 48 and the opposition at 54, neither near 61. Jerusalem Post, 10/20 · Al Jazeera, 10/20 Two broadcast polls on October 21 have Yashar at 23 and 20 seats and Likud at 19 in both, with neither bloc at 61. Jerusalem Post, 10/22 The one thing this paper will price about Israel's election is in the New Calls, and it is not who wins. At home, AP counted six million early votes across 39 states by about October 15, Georgia passed a million on October 19 and Colorado had 509,364 ballots back the same day. AP via Fox 10, 10/17 · Atlanta News First, 10/19 · Colorado Newsline, 10/21

Sweden's Speaker did not nominate Ulf Kristersson. He sent the Centre Party's leader out to ask around, and she reports back on Monday morning.

Spain: five pollsters have the right ahead, one has the left, and the prime minister said on television that Ceuta could have been handled better. The October polls as one Catalan daily collects them: Sigma Dos for El Mundo, PP 135 seats, PSOE 103, Vox 68; 40dB for El País and the SER, 132, 112 and 66; GAD3 for ABC, 133, 107 and 65; SocioMétrica, 141, 104 and 64; and IMOP for El Confidencial on October 23, PP and Vox together at 195, down six in fifteen days. The CIS barometer alone has the PSOE ahead on vote share, 34 to 22.2. Ara, 10/9, updated 10/23 This paper prints the polls and does not price the vote. On Thursday night's La Revuelta, Pedro Sánchez said of Ceuta that without doubt it could have been managed better, put the dead of July 30 and 31 at 141, said most arrivals have no right to international protection and will return to Morocco, and gave two numbers: more than 12,000 Moroccans returned voluntarily since August 10 and 7,500 reception places set up in a little over two months. El Faro de Ceuta, 10/22 From about five on Friday morning the national police entered the Príncipe neighbourhood to find Moroccans sleeping in streets, garages and cars after the clearance of three settlements, bused those found to the reception centre for identification and sent those who declined it to Morocco; many found in one former Legion garage were minors, and no totals were given. El Faro de Ceuta, 10/23 No new count of minors in care, and no new figure from Minister Torres, was found this week; the last this paper has is 3,019 children on October 14. Issue 13 The European Council's conclusions carry a paragraph of solidarity with Spain over the mass influx of July 30 and 31. EUCO 14/26, 10/16

The court: a treason complaint joined to the file, a secret-service report received, three councillors called, and still no investigado. By an order dated October 15, Judge María Tardón joined to the Ceuta case a complaint by the association Liberum alleging treason over the mass entry, which had opened a separate file numbered 88/2026, received the CNI's report the same day, ordered the Guardia Civil and the national police to send all their footage from July 30 onward, and summoned three Ceuta councillors as witnesses for October 27 at the prosecutor's request. Ceuta's president and the former chief of staff to the Government Delegate have testified; the article does not say in what capacity. Moncloa.com, 10/20 Nothing names an investigado or a charging decision. Call #43 (40 percent, settles December 31) is OPEN, and the ruling owed since Issue 12 is made here, before any designation: a designation counts for the call if it is made in DP 64/2026 or in a file the Audiencia Nacional has formally joined to it, which the treason complaint now is; a designation in another court's file, such as the Ceuta court's own file on the Government Delegate, does not count unless that file is joined too. Vozpópuli, 9/14 Whether that transfer happened is not found. The ruling is made now for the reason this paper gave last week about Sweden: made later, it could be made to suit the grade.

Schengen: Italy renewed for a week to match Spain, the two prime ministers gave their interior ministers seven days to find something else, and what happened at the two expiries was not found by press time. On October 16, on the margins of the European Council, Giorgia Meloni and Sánchez agreed that Matteo Piantedosi and Fernando Grande-Marlaska should find alternative cooperation measures within seven days so that the internal controls can be lifted, and Italy extended its checks on arrivals from Spain by seven days to October 23, to align with the expiry of Spain's checks on arrivals from Italy on October 22. Agenzia Nova, 10/16 · Euronews, 10/16 Italian government sources called it the last extension before the dispute is closed; Spain's foreign minister had called the Italian decision absurd. KCH/Infobae, 10/16 The Commission's table of controls, read Friday, lists no Italian or Spanish entry for these checks at all, only Italy's checks on Slovenia to December 18, and the full list of notifications is a PDF this paper could not read. European Commission Last issue this paper wrote that it does not read an empty row as a decision. It still does not.

Morocco: a government, at last, with 32 members and the same two men at Interior and Foreign Affairs. On Friday, October 16, the King presided over the appointment of the government of Fatima Ezzahra El Mansouri: Abdelouafi Laftit stays at Interior and Nasser Bourita at Foreign Affairs, Abdellatif Ouahbi at Justice, Fouzi Lekjaa at Economy and Finance, Nizar Baraka at Equipment and Water, and Ahmed Rahhou takes a ministry of artificial intelligence and digital transition. Maroc.ma, 10/16 The majority behind it is PAM with 97 seats, Istiqlal 65, the USFP 26 and the PPS 19. APA, 10/16 Seven weeks after the King called the migration model with Spain outdated, the two ministers who run that relationship are the same two.

Brussels: the budget conclusions have no number in them, the special summit has a date at last, and the Council regrets what Washington did on diesel. The conclusions of October 15 and 16 say leaders discussed the key elements of a balanced compromise on the 2028 to 2034 budget on the basis of the Irish presidency's updated negotiating box and that an agreement before the end of the year would allow the legislation to be adopted in 2027; they contain no figure, no political agreement and no summit date. EUCO 14/26, 10/16 The box itself, dated October 10, puts commitments at 1,622,011 million euros in 2025 prices, in brackets, against the Commission's 1,984,894 million in current prices, with a Ukraine reserve of 88,869 million above the ceilings. Council note 13922/26, 10/10 The Council's calendar now carries an extraordinary European Council on November 26 and 27, which settles last issue's disagreement between Euronews and the calendar in Euronews's favour, and the regular meeting on December 17 and 18. Council calendar · Council calendar Call #55 (35 percent, settles December 31) is OPEN with its first dated venue. On Ukraine the leaders welcomed the first disbursements of the 90 billion euro support loan for 2026 and 2027 and the 21st sanctions package, extended temporary protection to March 2028, welcomed the opening of two more negotiating clusters with Ukraine and Moldova on October 13, and, in paragraph 25, regretted the United States' decision to lift sanctions on Russian diesel temporarily. EUCO 14/26, 10/16 They also asked for targeted, temporary measures on energy prices, a short-term framework for refineries and a faster market stability reserve, and the energy ministers meet on October 29.

France: 550,000 in the streets by the ministry's count, 2,397 arrests, 997 police hurt, a town hall burned, and a president on television the next night. The day of action of October 17 against the cost of living drew about 550,000 marchers by the interior minister's count and 800,000 by the organisers', 110,000 of them in Paris, where the main march passed without major incident; the night did not. DH.net/Belga, 10/17 The arrest count rose through Sunday as it was issued: about 400 on Saturday evening, 1,200 by the prime minister on Sunday morning, more than 1,800 by the interior minister at midday, and 2,397 nationwide in the ministry's consolidated figure on Sunday night, with 997 police and gendarmes injured, seven seriously, and 855 arrests in Paris alone, a record by the prefecture's account. Paris Match Belgique/Belga, 10/18 · DH.net/AFP, 10/18 · Economie Matin, 10/19 Limoges' nineteenth-century town hall was largely lost to fire, its roof fallen and its bell tower gone; town halls and prefectures were attacked in Marseille, Lille, Angers and Bordeaux, a tourist office in Lyon was set alight, and the retail federation counted about 1,500 shops hit and losses in the hundreds of millions of euros. DH.net/AFP, 10/18 Two seventeen-year-olds were gravely injured, one losing a hand to a police grenade in Saint-Étienne and one an eye in Mulhouse, both under investigation, and a man died of a cardiac arrest on a Paris boulevard with no link to the clashes established; none is named here. Economie Matin, 10/19 Emmanuel Macron addressed the nation at 8 p.m. on Sunday, condemned the violence, said the conduct of police operations would be examined and asked the prime minister to consult parties, unions, students, mayors and parliamentarians; the Assembly's president proposed a parliamentary inquiry; parties from the National Rally to the Greens called for the interior minister's resignation; and the CGT called a national strike day for November 5. DH.net/AFP, 10/18 Three arrest tolls at three hours are printed above with their hours, because that is how they were issued.

Latvia, Montenegro, Bulgaria, Bosnia, Moldova. Latvia's prime minister-designate, Andris Kulbergs of the United List, meets his current partners, the National Alliance and New Unity, on October 28, and the new Saeima first sits on November 3, after which the President can formally nominate him. LSM via EU Agenda, 10/20 · LSM via UA.News, 10/6 One Brussels outlet reports that leaders struck the only two passages setting a timeline for Montenegro's accession from last week's conclusions, with Croatia's prime minister claiming credit and listing eight bilateral points; the conclusions as published welcome the treaty work and give no dates, which is consistent with the report and does not prove it. The New Union Post, 10/16 · EUCO 14/26, 10/16 Bulgaria votes for a president on Sunday, with a runoff on November 1 if nobody clears half; the incumbent, Iliana Iotova, runs with the backing of Progressive Bulgaria, and no published poll was found. BNR, 7/29 Bosnia's certification of its October 4 results and the Brčko repeat vote of October 18 were not found after four searches across two passes, all of which returned 2022; the Council's calendar has an EU and Western Balkans summit on November 25. Council calendar Moldova appears in the conclusions for its two new clusters, and Zelensky told the leaders it would be wrong to split the two countries' paths. The New Union Post, 10/16

The November meeting now has three chairs on one government's account and none on another's, and the notice this paper is waiting for has still not been published.

Taiwan: one morning of 29 aircraft, live fire that does not count, and still no named exercise. The defence ministry's daily counts, as Taiwan News carries them, ran 8, 9, 2 and 5 aircraft for the windows ending on the mornings of October 16 to 19, with 8, 5, 2 and 3 crossing the median line, and then 29 in the window ending on the morning of October 21, 23 of them across the line, with six navy ships and nine official ones; the two mornings after were not found. Taiwan News, 10/16 · Taiwan News, 10/17 · Taiwan News, 10/18 · Taiwan News, 10/19 · Taiwan News, 10/21 The Liaoning's carrier group has been in the western Pacific since October 14, on what the PLA Navy calls routine annual training. Taipei Times, 10/15 China's live-fire closures of October 12 to 17 were off its own coast and are excluded by call #54's own terms, and no exercise under a name of its own was announced by the Eastern Theater Command in any page this paper read. Domino Theory, 10/15 Keen Sword, the American and Japanese exercise, began on October 19 in the southwestern islands with about 45,000 Japanese and 12,000 American personnel, as AP has it. RealClearDefense/AP, 10/21 No notification of the American arms package was found. Call #54 (30 percent, settles December 31) is OPEN, nothing moved.

Korea: an index that fell 8 percent in a day moved more than 3 percent on three of this week's five sessions, and the central bank held. The Kospi closed at 5,668.05 on October 16, up 2.05 percent from the crash; 5,768.01 on the 19th, up 1.76 percent, at the session's high; 5,552.74 on the 20th, down 3.73 percent; 5,735.66 on the 21st, up 3.29 percent; 5,533.77 on the 22nd, down 3.52 percent; and 5,550.30 on Friday, up 0.30 percent. Korea Times, 10/16 · MoneyToday, 10/19 · KED Global, 10/22 · MoneyToday, 10/22 · Korea JoongAng Daily, 10/23 On Thursday retail investors net bought 1.363 trillion won of stock while institutions and foreigners sold, and Samsung Electronics and SK hynix fell 4 and 5.5 percent. MoneyToday, 10/22 The Bank of Korea held its base rate at 3.0 percent on October 22, unanimously, after raising it in July and August, and its governor said further increases depend on the data. Aju Press, 10/22 Korean retail investors had bought $4.83 billion of American stocks net by October 21, 4.8 times September's pace, by the securities depository's count. KED Global, 10/22

North Korea: the exercise this paper called five days runs to October 30, and Pyongyang promised a tit-for-tat. Hoguk began on October 19 and is scheduled through October 30 by the Joint Chiefs' account, as Yonhap carries it, with American forces taking part; Issue 13 printed it as a five-day exercise, and that is in Corrections. Korea Times, 10/20 KCNA's commentary of October 20 called Hoguk and Keen Sword muscle flexing by enemy states and said a "tit-for-tat principle" would apply. Korea Times, 10/20 No missile launch was found between October 16 and 22. The centennial of October 17 drew a Rodong Sinmun editorial; a Daily NK column reads the leader's lower profile at three recent events as preparation for a meeting with the American president, which is a column's opinion and is printed here as one. Daily NK, 10/21

Okinawa and Tokyo: no charge yet, an alcohol ban at Kadena, and a government that lost its week to a resignation. Formal charges in the Naha homicide had not been announced as of October 23. The 18th Wing at Kadena ordered, from October 22 through November 8, no alcohol for its most junior enlisted ranks, none in dormitories, and an on-base curfew from 10 p.m. to 5 a.m., with unannounced inspections; the prefecture says it was not told in advance. Stars and Stripes, 10/23 In the Diet, the opposition filed censure motions in both chambers after the agriculture minister's resignation of October 14 and is refusing bills tied to his portfolio in the upper house, and Prime Minister Takaichi has not said how her cut in the consumption tax on food will be paid for. Asia Policy Point, 10/18

South China Sea: an ambassador summoned, a resupply watched. On October 19 the Philippine foreign ministry summoned China's ambassador over remarks it read as a threat of force, and he disputed the reading; on October 21 the China Coast Guard said it had monitored a Philippine supply run to the grounded ship at Second Thomas Shoal, and Manila had not commented. MarineLink/Reuters, 10/21

China's economy: 4.5 percent, with exports carrying it. The statistics bureau put third-quarter growth at 4.5 percent year on year on October 19, after 5.0 in the first quarter and 4.3 in the second: exports up 16.4 percent for the first nine months, imports up 22.3, fixed-asset investment down 7.2 percent, property investment down 20.6, September producer prices up 5.0 percent and consumer prices up 0.9. gov.cn/NBS, 10/19

The Atlantic produced a tenth named storm and retired it in 24 hours without a hurricane in it, the strongest storm on Earth this year passed ten miles from Guam, and Hurricane Isaias now has a price in the low billions and a request for a disaster declaration that has not been answered.

The eastern Pacific is having the season the Atlantic is not: its table lists 21 named storms through Vance, with ten hurricanes and seven majors, and its accumulated energy 127 percent above normal. NHC eastern Pacific table Simon brushed the coast at Category 4 two weeks ago and Trudy stayed at sea at Category 3; Polo, in September, came ashore in Baja California Sur as a Category 3. PAHO, 9/29 Two misses in two weeks is luck, and this paper prints it as luck.

Isaias, two weeks on: a price and a request. Moody's puts the private insured loss at 2.5 to 4.5 billion dollars with a best estimate of 3.5 billion including federal flood insurance; KCC's figure is 3 billion for private wind and surge, excluding flood, with at least 21 confirmed tornadoes; Verisk's 1 to 2 billion and Cotality's 2 to 3 billion stand. Moody's RMS, 10/16 · Insurance Business, 10/15 Florida's insurance regulator counted 46,509 claims and 582 million dollars in insured losses as of October 15, 22,894 of the claims in Santa Rosa County and 13,677 in Escambia, and about 87 percent of residential claims open with nothing paid; Governor DeSantis asked for a major disaster declaration on October 15, about 237 million dollars of it, for 15 counties under public assistance and eight under individual assistance, and the Florida Phoenix's account puts the state's dead at at least six. Florida Phoenix, 10/19 FEMA's records on Friday still show the three emergency declarations of October 9 and no major disaster declaration for any state. OpenFEMA Florida, 10/23 Last issue printed four dead, two in Florida; the Florida figure alone is now at least six, and the change is in Corrections. The record-book question is unchanged: KCC calls Isaias the latest first hurricane of a season on record, and the Hurricane Center has still said nothing.

El Niño: 2.4 again, and a September sea-surface record for the region. The weekly update dated October 19 keeps the advisory, puts Niño-3.4 at plus 2.4 degrees for the latest week and Niño-1+2 at plus 4.4, and gives a 54 percent chance that the three-month index for September to November reaches plus 2.5, 83 percent for October to December. CPC weekly, 10/19 Copernicus says the region's September sea-surface temperature, 29.70 degrees, was the highest for any month on its record, inside a September that was the second warmest globally at 1.63 degrees above pre-industrial, with a record September ocean surface of 21.05. Copernicus, 10/12 · Copernicus, 10/14 The next official discussion is November 12.

Drought: Texas and Oklahoma got their rain, and the map crossed below 51 percent. The Drought Monitor of October 20, released Thursday, has 50.67 percent of the Lower 48 in drought, from 53.73, with 90.8 million people in it, after the rain of October 13 to 15 cut the worst category in Texas and Oklahoma while Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee and southern Missouri deteriorated; Lake Powell sits at about 22 percent of capacity. US Drought Monitor, 10/22 · drought.gov, 10/22 September was the warmest on record for Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas, and Dallas County was in exceptional drought on October 1. drought.gov Southern Plains, 10/22 Dallas's supply reservoirs read 86.2 percent full on Friday, from 87.2 a week ago, and the state's 72.1. Water Data for Texas, 10/23 · Water Data for Texas The rain that eased the map did not reach the reservoirs that supply this paper's half of the state.

Fire and haze. Preparedness level 1, nine uncontained large fires, and a year at 65,543 fires and 9,044,523 acres in Thursday's situation report, 132 and 142 percent of the ten-year averages; the coordination centre's own dashboard printed 66,204 and 9,050,949 the same morning, and both are printed, as they were last week. NICC situation report, 10/22 · NICC, 10/22 Singapore's 24-hour index at 5 a.m. on Friday read between 69 and 88, moderate, from 123 to 186 a week ago, while the regional centre's alert stays at its highest level and its hotspot count is obscured by smoke and cloud. data.gov.sg, 10/23 · ASMC No Malaysian school closure dated inside the week was found.

Elsewhere, with a toll. Flooding at the Triple Frontier killed one person in Ciudad del Este and displaced more than 1,200 there and more than 400 in Corrientes, with three missing in Santa Fe after a boat accident, by PAHO's monitoring of October 19, which it labels unofficial. PAHO, 10/19 Mexico's Gulf coast flooded under a cold front while Trudy threatened the other coast, more than 1,500 homes affected in Veracruz, with no toll reported. Reuters via KSL, 10/18 COP31 opens in Antalya on November 9 with a leaders' summit on the 11th and 12th. UNFCCC

PJM told its members it will file on October 29, which is the day call #52 settles, and the physical Brent barrel came down to a $9 premium over the contract, which is still a premium.

The barrel: last issue the physical Brent price ran $20 to $25 over the December contract every day. This week the gap closed to about $9, from the physical side; the contract barely moved and the delivered barrel fell eleven dollars in three sessions. EIA, 10/21 The wire wraps give two reasons, both from the supply side: Washington's waiver on Russian diesel, about 2.3 million barrels this month and up to 7.6 million a month, and the IEA's push to finish the remaining 100 million barrels of its March release, 20 million of it diesel. EnergyNow, 10/19 · S&P Global, 10/15 Kpler, as the same wrap relays it, puts Gulf crude shipments near 8.5 million barrels a day, from more than 20 million before the war. The premium is smaller, and it is still the price of the barrels that did not come through the strait. The EIA's forecast of $105 for the quarter, which this paper said two weeks ago was being compared to the wrong instrument, is now about $10 low against the instrument it forecasts and $5 low against the one everyone quotes. EIA STEO, 10/6 The price call on Brent this section promised is not in the New Calls, and the New Calls say why.

The reserve and the diesel. No award for the 40-million-barrel exchange offered on September 29 has been published; the department's page says deliveries are scheduled for November and December and that four earlier exchanges awarded more than 133 million barrels. DOE, 9/29 · DOE petroleum reserves The first Russian diesel cargo under the waiver was due to leave on October 22, 40,000 tons by Putin's account, and the European Council put on paper that it regrets the decision that let it sail. ISW, 10/21 · EUCO 14/26, 10/16 OPEC's seven meet on November 1, by a relayed account; its own pages refused this paper. Xinhua via Bernama, 10/4

PJM's week otherwise, and FERC's conference. The emergency order that let PJM call on data-centre generators expired on October 16 and was not renewed; the department's list has no order dated since, and its standing plant orders run out between November 14 and December 25. DOE 202(c) orders · DOE order 202-26-50, 10/12 PJM posted a capacity advisory for October 19 for maintenance outages. PJM Inside Lines FERC's reliability conference on October 21 ran two panels: large loads and system dynamics, with NERC's chief executive, Emerald AI, Dominion, AEP and PJM's operations lead, and the West under drought, with about 4,500 megawatts of lost Colorado River hydropower in the framing. FERC No order on MISO's large-load study and no NERC board action on the large-load standards was found; FERC's July directive gives NERC until December 31 to file them. NERC FAQ

The grid-equipment rule, Nevada's ruling, the river. DOE's page for the bulk-power emergency still shows the order, the request for information and a webinar, and no rule; the 120 days run out about December 24. DOE CESER · Federal Register, 9/9 Call #30 is OPEN, leaning YES, 63 days left, on nothing new. In Washoe County the judge ruled on Tuesday, staying Tract's arbitration until the utility commission decides NV Energy's resource plan and Tract's service agreements, and call #31 is graded a hit, argued, in the Scorecard. This Is Reno, 10/22 The unsealing motions of October 7 have no ruling reported. This Is Reno, 10/7 No second suit against the Colorado River decision was found, and the first is still the only one. GT Law, 8/25 Call #42 is OPEN, tracking NO. Reclamation's October studies print no ten-year Lee Ferry figure; the most probable run keeps Powell's 2027 release at 6.0 million acre-feet and projects Mead at 1,010.85 feet next September, the minimum run has Powell's inflow at 42 percent of average and Mead at 1,006.43, and the operating guidelines cite only the 8.23 million acre-foot minimum release. Reclamation, 10/15 · Reclamation minimum, 10/15 · Reclamation guidelines Powell stood at 3,520.55 feet and 23 percent full on October 18, Mead at 1,037.24 and 26 percent. Reclamation weekly, 10/18 Call #47 is OPEN, tracking YES, and the figure it needs has still not been published by anyone.

The filing this paper said was due by about October 23 was not on EDGAR when this issue went to press on October 23, and three reports say it could be there by the time you read this.

Anthropic's own week was four announcements and no filing. Six METR evaluators are embedded with employee-like access, a post updated on October 20 says, with three access tiers, a publication right the company cannot veto, and SecureBio reviewing the biological chapter of its August risk report. Anthropic, 10/15 A Public Benefit Fund, a wholly owned company, gets 5 percent of Anthropic's shares subject to stockholder approval, with 2 percent more for every 50 percent rise in the company's value above a baseline the post does not state, and none of it may be used for lobbying or political giving. Anthropic, 10/18 A Harvard physicist, Christopher Stubbs, joined the Long-Term Benefit Trust, which now has four trustees. Anthropic, 10/21 And on Thursday the company gave its Agent Skills standard, name, logo and domain to the Linux Foundation's Agentic AI Foundation, where the Model Context Protocol already lives. Anthropic, 10/22 A fund that takes a twentieth of the company and a trust that gains a trustee are the kind of housekeeping a company does before it sells shares to the public, and this paper notes that without pricing it. On the false police tip of July 18, nothing official moved: a tracker updated on October 21 reports no fine, investigation or enforcement action since October 15, and this paper found none either. Shattered, 10/21

Chips: the words are the same, the quarter is bigger, and the earnings that would test call #7 are next week. TSMC's chief executive told analysts on October 15 that demand "is still far above our capability today to supply" and that the gap is still quite big; his finance chief said tool supply is tight and that it is too early to give a capacity increase for next year. The transcript does not contain the words sold out. TSMC call transcript, 10/15 Capital spending this year will be $60 billion to $64 billion, N2 capacity more than doubles in 2027, and the company counts thirteen leading-edge and advanced-packaging fabs in Taiwan. TSMC call transcript, 10/15 ASML's planned supply for 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet customers' demand, by its own release of October 14, and it plans a 30 percent increase in immersion and low-NA EUV capacity next year. ASML, 10/14 Intel reports on October 29 and SK hynix is listed for October 27, so no Korean or American chip print landed in the window. Intel, 10/6 · Yahoo Finance, SKHY Call #7 (70 percent, settles in the first quarter) is OPEN, tracking YES, on a supplier saying demand exceeds supply in every tense but the one the call uses.

Google Cloud lost a London zone to the grid for six hours, and nobody else lost anything that lasted. From 23:00 Pacific on October 19 to 05:10 on October 20, multiple services failed in europe-west2 after a power-grid disruption at the facility hosting one zone and the backup generators failed to start on an automation fault; the incident page lists about forty products, says virtual-machine recovery passed 99 percent by the end, and promises a final report on no date. Google Cloud Status It is a power failure, not a control-plane failure, and this paper says so because call #6 taught it to. Azure's history page is clean since September 30; Cloudflare logged five incidents on October 22 and 23, two of them marked major and resolved within the day; OpenAI's status page records eleven incidents between October 15 and 23, all resolved, including an hour of authentication errors on October 20 fixed by a configuration rollback; Anthropic's page shows forty minutes of degraded performance on October 21 and four hours of connector errors overnight into October 22. Azure Status History · Cloudflare Status · OpenAI Status · Anthropic Status The AWS page still needs a browser.

Australia, Hugging Face and the calibration call: the review goes on, the list is empty, and no release led with the word. OpenAI confirmed three appointees to its Australian task force on October 20, a former eSafety commissioner, a technology policy academic and a former chief of navy, and the Commonwealth had not referred the Services Australia breach to the federal police as of that report. The Nightly, 10/20 Call #44 is OPEN, review and no referral, 69 days left. The FTC's early-termination list runs to October 21 without Nvidia or Hugging Face, and the 8-K still says the first half of 2027. FTC early terminations · Nvidia 8-K, 9/2 Call #36 is OPEN, no movement. OpenAI's week of releases was voice models, a slide tool and locked chats; Mistral's Large 4 claims to engage more responsibly and promises weights by month's end; Google's model card for Argon, published October 13, reports no hallucination, factuality or calibration figure, and its availability post says Argon answers more directly with less hedging, which is a line and not a headline, and in one reading the opposite of calibration. ChatGPT release notes · Mistral, 10/6 · Gemini 4 Argon model card · Google, 10/13 Nvidia's Nemotron 3.5 Super VL, 120 billion parameters with open weights, datasets and training recipes, shipped on October 15 with no honesty claim of any kind. Nvidia, 10/15 Call #5 is OPEN: nothing shipped with calibration as its headline, and the call runs to mid-January.

Washington: the bill that was announced on October 1 has still not been introduced, and the style guide has one adopter. Both sponsors' releases of October 1 say the senators announced legislation, Hawley's says he is introducing it, neither links a text, his release list through October 21 carries no introduction notice, and a search of congress.gov finds nothing; three weeks on, the AI Agent Accountability Act is a press release. Sen. Hawley, 10/1 · Sen. Murphy, 10/1 · Hawley press releases The same senator wrote to Alphabet's chief executive on October 21 with Senator Blumenthal about AI products in classrooms, and OpenAI's answers to his earlier questions have still not appeared anywhere this paper can find. Sen. Hawley, 10/21 A law firm's survey of October 13 found one agency, NIST, that had posted a notice adopting the executive order's term; the order's 60 days for proposed legislative language run out about November 28. Arnold & Porter, 10/13 · Federal Register, 10/2 No state signed or vetoed an AI law this week, California's deadline having passed on September 30, and no court ruled in an AI copyright case between October 16 and 23 by any of three trackers; the one event was a summary-judgment hearing in the music publishers' case against Anthropic on October 21, outcome not found. National Law Review, 10/22 · AI Lawsuit Tracker, 10/19 The EU's next AI Act milestone is December 2, under the omnibus that moved the high-risk deadlines to 2027 and 2028. AI Act explorer

Seventh issue of this section, same axis: how far a claim sits from something anyone can check. This week the claim that moved closest to a check is a number in OpenAI's own README; the one that stayed furthest is the Navier-Stokes proof, which this paper said it would re-run and has not.

The arena merged four checker updates and no catalogue test, and OpenAI's catalogue count went from 722 to 719 in a commit anyone can read.

The README is the smaller story and, this week, a resolved one. GitHub's rendering of the main branch on Friday reads 719 manuscripts in 372 families and about 42 percent of top-line results formalized, and one commit, 3014888, carries exactly that change: the line that said 722 now says 719, and a history file arrives with it whose one entry, dated October 7, lists three manuscripts withdrawn, fourteen fixed and 300 of 719 results formalized. openai/math · commit 3014888 · history.md A copy of the same README taken from GitHub's raw file server earlier the same morning said 722, which this paper reads as a stale cache and prints because it was read. openai/math README, raw The commit page shows no date and the commit list would not open. A catalogue that said its corrections would be versioned has a version anyone can read, and the claim it made about itself passes this week's test.

Navier-Stokes: version one, and a Simons cheque instead of a reply. OpenAI's Navier-Stokes page has no note dated after September 10 and does not mention the Cambridge preprint; arXiv lists only the preprint's first version, of October 6. arXiv:2610.08144 · OpenAI, 9/8 The specific gap, as one reader of the preprint describes it, is a lemma that the written proof states with m+4 derivatives and the Lean proof with m+5, so the formal theorem is weaker than the sentence it is cited for. Redreamality, 10/9 A teaching repository reproduced OpenAI's formalization on October 8 at a pinned commit with the same Lean toolchain the arena uses, which is a build, not a review. CoursIA PR, 10/8 The re-run this paper planned on September 23 has still not been run. Third issue. Corrections.

Courtade-Kumar: the rival claim has a Lean file and a name. The one-bit proof of the conjecture by two authors at Northeastern and a company called Fidian, revised on September 28, comes with a Lean formalization and a disclosure that the single-bit proof was generated by generative AI systems, no model named; the paper says the authors independently verified a concurrent proof in Lean. arXiv:2609.26444v2 The seven-author repository this paper reported last week, with its unnamed independent runner, did not surface in any search this week and was not read. The named runner this paper asked for last issue is still unnamed.

The scoreboards: the boards disagree and one of them says so in its own footnote. Vals, updated October 22 on version 2.2 of its index, has Anthropic's Sonnet 5.5 first at 70.85 percent, Opus 5.5 second at 70.18, Google's Argon third at 69.24, Meta's Wonder Full fourth and OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra fifth, and then adds that the two Anthropic scores include tasks served by a fallback model after provider refusals; counted as failures, they fall to 69.03 and 64.16 and Argon is first. Vals, 10/22 Artificial Analysis has Opus 5.5 first at 58 and Sonnet 5.5 and Meta's model at 56. Artificial Analysis Arena's text board, dated October 22 on almost nine million votes, has Argon first at 1517, marked preliminary, with Opus 5.5 and Meta's Wonder at 1509; its agent board has Opus 5.5 first at 20.92 percent and GPT-6 Astra second. Arena text, 10/22 · Arena Last issue Google led two of four boards; this week it leads one outright and a second by footnote. A leaderboard whose ranking depends on how it counts the questions a model refused to answer is reporting a fact about refusals, and that fact belongs beside the score.

Calibration: nothing dated this week. Artificial Analysis's additions in the window are health leaderboards on October 19 and a decision index with a hallucination component on October 13, with no figures surfaced; its most recent factuality numbers are from September 28, 54 percent accuracy for Sonnet 5.5 against 66 for Opus 5.5 on its omniscience test. Artificial Analysis changelog · Artificial Analysis, 9/28 The hallucination leaderboard this paper reads was last updated on September 22 by one aggregator's account and could not be read directly. Suprmind, 10/8 Call #5 is OPEN, and the Stack has the releases.

Thursday took the week: chips sold off, the Nasdaq lost 2.6 percent in a day, the ten-year Treasury had its sharpest one-day rally in years, and the market moved past this paper's 85 percent on an October hold.

The long end is the other half again. Last issue this paper said a market that brings a hike forward and pulls long yields down at the same time is pricing a hike now and a slowdown after it, and the thirty-year had fallen 24 basis points over a week. Issue 13 On Thursday the ten-year fell 17 in a session while the December odds held near four in five. The Fed's chair, Kevin Warsh, gave no guidance in his last speech before the blackout, at the IMF meetings in Bangkok on October 16. Startup Fortune, 10/22

Earnings: two beats that fell, one that rose, and a miss that was a charge. Netflix reported revenue of $12.9 billion, up 12 percent, and $0.87 a share, and cut its 2026 advertising revenue outlook to about $2.7 billion from about $3 billion; its shares fell 5.2 percent on Wednesday to $65.12. Netflix via SEC, 10/20 · 24/7 Wall St IBM beat on revenue, $17.1 billion against $16.84 billion expected, and on adjusted earnings, $2.95 a share against $2.87, and fell 7 percent on Thursday after its chief executive said some clients' AI spending was "completely out of control with no real return." 24/7 Wall St, 10/22 Procter & Gamble earned $2.00 a share on its core measure against $1.89 expected, kept its outlook and rose 6 percent. 24/7 Wall St, 10/22 Bank of America's results, missing last issue, are read: $0.91 a share including a $1.2 billion regulatory settlement charge worth $0.17 a share, $1.08 without it, on $30.0 billion of revenue. Bank of America 8-K, 10/14

Dollar, gold, yen, Asia. The dollar index fell about 0.4 percent on the week, to 101.44 on Thursday from 101.87, on one Investing.com table; another of the vendor's pages shows Thursday at 101.65, and the two do not agree. Investing.com, dollar index December gold ended Thursday near $4,038, down 2.7 percent on the day, and spot gold went under $4,000 in Asian trade on Friday for the first time since July, to a low of $3,986.74, with silver down nearly 6 percent. Capp Notes, 10/22 · FinanceFeeds, 10/23 The dollar ended Thursday at 156.54 yen, from 157.99 a week earlier, and the yen touched its strongest since September on Friday; no Japanese intervention or warning this week was found. Investing.com, USD/JPY · Trading Economics, yen Asia sold with the chip trade on Thursday: the Nikkei 225 fell 3.97 percent to 62,056.50, the Hang Seng 3.03 percent to 22,934.68 and the Shanghai Composite 1.48 percent to 3,658.03, down 3.68, 4.69 and 1.33 percent on the week. Investing.com, Nikkei · Investing.com, Hang Seng · Investing.com, Shanghai Seoul is in the Pacific.

Crypto: Bitcoin flat on the week, and the funds came back until Thursday. Bitcoin was near $81,200 on Thursday, down about 3 percent on the day and about flat on the week, and Ether near $2,391, on Trading Economics' figures, which are a relay and not an exchange; the Coinbase candles this paper used last week would not open. Trading Economics, Bitcoin · Trading Economics, Ether Spot Bitcoin funds took in a net $356.7 million over the five sessions from October 16 to 22, with more than $520 million on each of October 19 and 21 and the week's largest outflow, $635.6 million, on Thursday, by Farside, the only tabulation this paper has; the Ether table would not open. Farside BTC The comment period on the SEC's proposed crypto-asset rule, Federal Register document 2026-17183, closed on October 20, and no count of the letters was found. Phemex, 8/23 Nothing on the CLARITY Act dated this week was found either.

Central banks ahead. The Bank of Canada decides on October 28, with a Monetary Policy Report, the same day as the FOMC; it did not meet this week. Bank of Canada The ECB meets October 28 and 29, the Bank of Japan October 29 and 30 with its outlook report, and the Bank of England on November 5. ECB · Bank of Japan · Bank of England Turkey's central bank cut its one-week repo rate by 100 basis points to 36 percent on October 22, by Trading Economics' account. Trading Economics, Turkey

Tampa Bay won the last three games of the American League series, the World Series opens tonight in Milwaukee with a first-time champion certain, and college football had a Saturday the AP called the first of its kind in the poll's 90 years.

Five of the top seven lost on one Saturday, and Miami is No. 1 for the first time since 2002. Ohio State won 19 to 15 at Indiana, ending a 22-game winning streak; Florida won 27 to 24 at Texas; Auburn won 27 to 24 at Georgia; BYU beat Notre Dame 28 to 24 as a 10.5-point underdog; Tennessee beat Alabama 26 to 10; and Miami beat Florida State 43 to 35 in two overtimes. PFF, 10/18 · AP via KXAN, 10/18 The AP called five of the top seven losing a first in the poll's 90-year history. The poll after it: 1 Miami, with 40 of 70 first-place votes, 2 BYU, its highest since 1984, 3 Ohio State, 4 Notre Dame, 5 Georgia, 6 Indiana, 7 Ole Miss, 8 Texas Tech, 9 UCLA, 10 Utah. Texas fell twelve places to 19 and Florida entered at 20. AP via KXAN, 10/18 Saturday's late game is No. 7 Ole Miss at No. 19 Texas at 7:30 p.m. Eastern on ABC. ESPN Press Room, 10/19

The NFL after six weeks: three unbeaten, two winless, and a Thursday night in Chicago. On Sunday, Houston beat Jacksonville 34 to 31 at Wembley on Ka'imi Fairbairn's 49-yard field goal; Kansas City beat the Chargers 22 to 6; Buffalo beat Las Vegas 33 to 30; and Green Bay beat Dallas 23 to 13 on Sunday night. On Monday, San Francisco beat Washington 23 to 17. Fox Sports MX, 10/18 · Legz, Week 6 ESPN's standings on Tuesday had Kansas City and Minnesota at 5-0 and San Francisco at 6-0, and Miami at 0-5 and the Chargers at 0-6. ScoresAndStats, 10/20 On Thursday night the Bears beat the Patriots 30 to 24, Caleb Williams throwing for 308 yards and two touchdowns, on the one game page this paper could open. RotoWire The trade deadline is November 10.

The rest, at a sentence or two each. The WNBA Finals opened at Chase Center, the answer last issue did not have: Golden State won Game 1 68 to 64 with 26 points from Gabby Williams, and Atlanta won Game 2 79 to 65, Angel Reese scoring 30 with 16 rebounds. Boston Globe, 10/19 · KQED, 10/19 Atlanta won Game 3 at home on Wednesday to lead two games to one, on a score this paper could not find, and Game 4 is Saturday at 1 p.m. Eastern at State Farm Arena. WSB-TV, 10/21 The NBA opened on Tuesday with Detroit's 23 straight fourth-quarter points to beat Boston 121 to 113, Philadelphia spoiling the Knicks' ring night 106 to 100 and Oklahoma City beating San Antonio 116 to 104. Field Level Media, 10/21 In hockey Carolina leads the league with 17 points and nobody is unbeaten or winless, on a table that prints no date. StatsCrew In the Champions League on Tuesday, Paris Saint-Germain beat Barcelona 4 to 2 and Liverpool beat Villarreal 4 to 3; on Wednesday, Bayern and Arsenal drew 2 to 2, Real Madrid beat Leipzig 4 to 1 and Como beat Manchester United 4 to 1. UEFA Formula 1 races in Austin on Sunday at 3 p.m. local time, with Kimi Antonelli leading George Russell 340 points to 238 after Singapore. Formula1.com, 10/19 · Formula1.com, standings There was no PGA Tour event last week; Eugenio Chacarra won the DP World Tour's event in New Delhi and Ruoning Yin the LPGA's in Shanghai, by a results list that gives winners and no scores. Sky Sports, 10/22 No tennis or cricket result came from an opened page this week.

The three picks live at last issue finished Northwestern 24, Michigan State 21 in East Lansing; Florida 27, Texas 24 in Austin; and Patriots 26, Jets 19 in Foxborough. All three are graded in the Gridiron Line below, outside the record. CBS Sports, NW at MSU · CBS Sports, FLA at TEX · CBS Sports, NYJ at NE

Three open this week, on top of the three the early read opened on October 22. All six carry seven days and enter the ledger together next issue. They are written to the season-two rules: each names the page that settles it, each kill is its call negated and was read a second time for its words, each was checked back to the start of its story for a fact that already answers it, and none is logged near a coin flip.

No call: the operation after November 3. It reaches this paper through one tracker's relay of one newspaper, and the paper does not price a bombing campaign on a relay, this week any more than last.

No call: Brazil's runoff, Israel's winner, Bulgaria's president. This paper does not price who wins elections.

No call: Hurricane Vance. It is forecast to stay at sea, and this paper does not price a landfall with people under it in either direction.

No call: Brent. The Grid promised a price call that names its instrument in its first line, and the paper wrote one, on the December contract settling above $100 on November 30, at 70. It is not logged: a futures contract that expires on October 30 is not the December contract on November 30, and the call this paper wrote named an instrument that will not exist on its own settling date. It is printed here as a near miss of the instrument rule, which is the rule it was written to honour.

THE GRIDIRON LINE

Kept off the official record, tallied separately. The last weekend this paper picked: one covered, one lost, one landed on the number.

G13, Michigan State +7 vs Northwestern: COVERED. Northwestern 24, Michigan State 21 in East Lansing: lost by three with seven in hand. Michigan State tied it at 21 with 7:24 left on a one-yard scramble and a two-point pass, and Northwestern won it on a 34-yard field goal with two seconds on the clock. CBS Sports box score G14, Texas minus 11.5 vs Florida: LOST. Florida 27, Texas 24 in Austin: lost outright, so no number would have covered. Texas led 17 to 3 in the second quarter after a punt-return touchdown, Florida scored the next 24 points, the last on an 11-yard run with 6:22 left, and a Texas touchdown with 4:21 left was the last score. CBS Sports box score The pick said the line had climbed two points against three dollars in four. It had, and the three dollars were right. G15, Jets +7 at Patriots: PUSH. Patriots 26, Jets 19 at Foxborough: a margin of exactly seven, which the rule printed last issue makes a push, left out of the tally. The margin landed there because New England missed an extra point wide left at 14:10 of the fourth quarter, kicked a field goal with 1:12 left for 26 to 16, and the Jets answered with one of their own with 32 seconds left. CBS Sports box score The market closed at 7.5, where the Jets cashed; this paper graded at 7, the worse number as it read it Thursday night, and a push is what a worse number costs. Fox Sports box score

One, one and a push. Fifteen picks in, fourteen counted, the record is nine and five. A fair coin does nine or better in fourteen about one time in five, so this is still a sample, and the section will keep saying so until it is not one.

This weekend, lines as read Thursday night, October 22, into early Friday, Central time. They move. Where two pages disagree both are printed and the pick is graded at the worse number, and a final margin landing exactly on that number is a push, printed as one and left out of the tally. One thing to print before the picks: the two money columns this section reads disagreed this week. ScoresAndOdds' percent-of-money column sat with the public tickets in every game below, and VSiN's lists of where DraftKings' handle sat on Tuesday evening put that book's money on the side the line moved toward. ScoresAndOdds, NCAAF consensus · VSiN, 10/22 This section has read ScoresAndOdds since it began and keeps reading it; the disagreement is printed so that a reader who prefers the other column can see what it says. No injury page for any game below could be read this week.

G16. South Carolina minus 2.5 vs No. 11 Tennessee, Saturday, 3:30 p.m. Eastern, Columbia, ESPN. Opened Tennessee minus 2.5 and now sits at South Carolina minus 2.5 at six books and minus 2 at BetMGM, with 82 percent of bets and 62 percent of the money on Tennessee. VegasInsider matchups, 10/22 · ScoresAndOdds, 10/23 · ESPN scoreboard, 10/24 A five-point swing through zero, against four dollars in five, toward a 3-3 home team that has already beaten Florida by 19 on the road this month. CBS Sports, 10/11 Laying the points, graded at 2.5.

G17. UCF +6.5 vs No. 2 BYU, Saturday, 3:30 p.m. Eastern, Orlando, Fox. Opened BYU minus 9.5 and sits at minus 6.5 at seven books, minus 7 on VegasInsider's consensus and on ESPN's line, with 84 percent of bets and 89 percent of the money on BYU. VegasInsider matchups, 10/22 · ScoresAndOdds, 10/23 · ESPN scoreboard, 10/24 BYU is 6-0 and second in the poll a week after beating Notre Dame; UCF is 3-3. Three points toward the home team against nine dollars in ten is the shape this section buys, and the pick is the underdog. Taking the points, graded at 6.5, the worse number.

G18. Cardinals +4 vs Broncos, Sunday, 4:05 p.m. Eastern, Glendale, CBS. Opened Denver minus 7.5 and sits at minus 4.5 at six books and minus 4 at BetMGM, with 61 to 63 percent of bets and 61 percent of the money on Denver. VegasInsider NFL odds, 10/21 · ScoresAndOdds, 10/23 · ESPN scoreboard, Week 7 Three points toward a 2-4 home team against three dollars in five, the largest reverse move on the NFL board. Taking the points, graded at 4, the worse number.

Same disclaimer, printed every time: judgment calls with stated reasoning, not model output, settled this weekend, never entering the official record.

Gridiron record: 9-5, one push.

Same rule as the rest of the paper, pointed at people instead of markets. Fact stated as fact. Disputed labeled disputed. A link on every line. If it doesn't clear the bar, it doesn't run. The bar: a named fact-checking desk rates the claim flat False or Pants on Fire, or Full Fact prints "False" or "Incorrect" in its verdict box. Mostly False, "misleading", a prose verdict in a debate roundup and a yes-or-no fact brief do not clear it.

Vice President JD Vance, Republican, a CBS News town hall, 10/17, fact-checked 10/19. He said Biden-era refinery closures, about a fifth of the country's capacity, are "the biggest reason" gasoline prices are high. PolitiFact: False. The fifth is California's share of gasoline refining capacity, not the nation's; Energy Information Administration data show national capacity roughly stable under both presidents; both California closures came during President Trump's terms; and the economists PolitiFact asked named the Iran war as the most obvious cause of the spike. PolitiFact, 10/19

Rep. Mike Collins, Republican, Georgia's Senate nominee, the Atlanta Press Club debate, 10/13, fact-checked 10/16. He said Sen. Jon Ossoff is "all for abortion up until and past birth." PolitiFact: False. Ossoff supports the standard of Roe v. Wade, which allows states to restrict abortion after viability with exceptions for the patient's life and health; the record the Collins campaign cited was his support for the Women's Health Protection Act and a vote against the Born-Alive bill; killing a newborn is illegal in all fifty states; and PolitiFact found no evidence that Ossoff supports it. PolitiFact, 10/16

Sen. Roger Marshall, Republican, Kansas, an interview on Sean Hannity's podcast, 10/16, fact-checked 10/20. He said Adam Hamilton, the Democratic Senate candidate, "wants to shut down the beef industry." PolitiFact: False. PolitiFact found no instance of Hamilton saying so; the claim rests on a 2020 sermon on climate in which he said cattle produce more carbon dioxide than some other foods and urged his congregation to shrink its footprint, diet included; and in an October 2 interview Hamilton called himself a meat eater who would champion beef eating. Marshall's office did not respond. PolitiFact, 10/20

Mike Rogers, Republican, Michigan's Senate nominee, CNN's State of the Union, 10/18, fact-checked 10/19. He said Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic nominee, did not disavow the Muslim Brotherhood. PolitiFact: False. Asked at a town hall in Caro, Michigan, on October 17 whether he would disavow the group, El-Sayed answered "Sure, yeah, absolutely," and then challenged the question; the Rogers campaign answered that dismissing is not disavowing and pointed to a 2012 statement that PolitiFact found was not a pledge of support for the group. The person who asked the question is a private citizen and is not named here. PolitiFact, 10/19

A video on X, no party, posted 10/20 and 10/21, fact-checked 10/22. The posts said the video showed a former student accusing James Talarico, Texas's Democratic Senate nominee, of misconduct. PolitiFact: Pants on Fire. The video impersonates a real Texas man who says it is not him; NewsGuard's detector rated it 98 percent likely to be a deepfake; researchers at Clemson's Media Forensic Hub and at Graphika tied it to Storm-1516, the Russian operation behind a 2024 fake about Tim Walz; and X suspended the account. Lead Stories reached the same answer a day earlier. PolitiFact, 10/22 · Lead Stories

Two pictures, no party, fact-checked 10/19 and 10/22. An image of protesters with fireworks and Palestinian flags under the Eiffel Tower; Full Fact's verdict box: False, the image was made with AI, carries an invisible watermark and traces back to a satirical post. Full Fact, 10/19 A clip of hundreds of stationary ships captioned as the Strait of Hormuz; Full Fact's verdict box: False, it was filmed from a plane near Chittagong in Bangladesh, and its earliest version, posted on October 3, said so. Full Fact, 10/22

On this week's balance, stated rather than engineered. Two passes ran this week, thirty searches in all: eleven by name at Republican speakers, ten at Democratic ones, two at viral claims with no party and seven to surface the desks' own pages, four of them refused by the search tool and counted anyway. Four desks were read: PolitiFact, through its midterms page and individual checks, Full Fact, FactCheck.org and Lead Stories, with one outlet's daily roundup used as a relay. AP, Reuters and the Washington Post's Fact Checker never surfaced, CNN's index refused automated reading, Snopes refused the fetches, and AFP arrived only by relay. On what was read, Republican-side speakers drew seven rated checks in the window and four cleared the bar, all False. Democratic-side speakers drew none: no desk this paper read rated a Democratic-side claim between October 16 and 22. PolitiFact, 2026 midterms The nearest were two Mostly False ratings dated October 12, on Talarico and on Amy Acton, outside the window, and unrated prose: FactCheck.org found Democratic ads "exaggerate" the Republican law's effect on Medicare, and a Democratic super PAC's Alaska ad left a false suggestion about Sen. Dan Sullivan. FactCheck.org, 10/16 · FactCheck.org, 10/15 The Republican near misses were Sen. Ashley Moody's Half True, a Club for Growth Action ad's Mostly False, and two pro-Republican Maine committees' ads that FactCheck.org called misleading. PolitiFact Florida · FactCheck.org, 10/20 In Britain, Full Fact's one verdict on a politician this week, on the Conservative Helen Whately on pensioner poverty, printed "Missing context," which does not clear. Full Fact, 10/21 Four of seven is not a sample, and none of none is not a finding about a party. The bar did not move to get the Democratic count off zero.

The paper spends most of its column inches on wars, borders, and people lying into microphones. That's the job. This is the other part of the record.

Carmel, Indiana, October 12, reported 10/16. Two brothers, 15 and 14, heard a splash on a Monday morning and found a grandmother in a retention pond with a four-year-old strapped to her back and a two-year-old in a stroller that was going under; neither she nor the older child could swim. The elder brother, a swim-club member, got the two of them to the bank and went back for the toddler; the younger called 911, and responders arrived at about 11:15. A police sergeant said the boys' efforts were the difference between a tragedy and a miraculous outcome, and the city council will recognise them on November 16. Sunny Skyz, 10/16 One source, with no local station named; the boys are minors and are not named here.

Mahanoy City, Pennsylvania, reported 10/20 and 10/22. The newly crowned homecoming king at Mahanoy Area High School saw the runner-up, a classmate with Down syndrome, overwhelmed by the noise of a packed gym at the pep rally, and walked over and put his own crown and sash on him. The video went around the country. He credits his mother and a younger brother with autism for knowing what to do. 6abc, 10/20 · Sunny Skyz, 10/22 Two sources, which spell the student's first name two ways, so this paper prints neither.

Bellingham, Massachusetts, reported 10/19. Three teenagers at a trampoline park complimented a seven-year-old on the ball he had won, then played catch and hide-and-seek and went down the slides with him for about forty minutes. They told the local station afterwards that they had not known he has autism. His mother posted it, and it travelled. Sunny Skyz, 10/19 The original is WBZ-TV's; its page was not reached, and the date of the outing is not printed.

Brisbane, Australia, reported 10/21. A 43-year-old runner sat down on a bench by the river, clutched her left arm and collapsed in cardiac arrest, on a security camera. Bystanders called for help and started compressions, and a casino security guard who had never used one outside training ran over with the building's defibrillator. Doctors told her later that she had clinically died. She is alive and, in her word, grateful. Sunny Skyz, 10/21 One source; no outlet or date is given, and this paper found no second.

Every week produces at least one story with no read, no call, and no explanation. It goes here, filed without a take.

Warren, Rhode Island: the pumpkin is official. Guinness World Records' own page for the heaviest pumpkin now lists 1,431.5 kilograms, 3,156 pounds, grown by Ron Wallace of Coventry and weighed at Warren on October 10, and its write-up says the record changed hands twice in one week, Britain on October 3 and Rhode Island on the 10th, and calls Wallace the first in history to present a valid pumpkin over 3,000 pounds. Guinness World Records · Guinness World Records, 10/14 Last week this paper wrote that a pumpkin in Rhode Island might already be heavier than the record. It was.

Upper West Side, New York: the owls are still there. AP's report of October 16 has the barn owl family still in its water tower on West 75th Street, the fledglings making test flights at night, the Cornell Lab of Ornithology calling it the first known nest in Manhattan in recorded history, and the state conservation agency warning that the species' population is declining at an alarming rate. AP via PBS, 10/16 Two adults by most counts and five or six young, depending on who is counting.

Bermuda: the bench went home. The memorial bench that Hurricane Helene tore off a Florida causeway in 2024 and that washed up in Bermuda in September was lifted off Southlands Park Beach at low tide by longshoremen, power-washed, and loaded onto the MV Somers Isles at 11:30 a.m. on October 14, bound for Fernandina Beach, Florida, at no charge, with the man who found it watching. The family has not decided where it will stand. Royal Gazette, 10/15 A thousand miles out and a thousand miles back, by freighter this time.

Atlanta, reported 10/22. A 29-foot, roughly 8,000-pound bronze of Cyrus the Great, on a limestone base shaped like his tomb, was installed at Pardis Park this week, by one account one of the largest Iranian monuments outside Iran, with a dedication to follow at a festival on a Saturday the report does not date. Good News Network, 10/22 One source, citing a local station's interview.

Tanegashima, October 19. Japan launched its Martian Moons mission at 19:41 UTC on the first flight of a new configuration of its H3 rocket, carrying a French and German rover, to land on Phobos once or twice, take about ten grams, and bring them back to Earth in 2031; the agency said on October 21 that the solar arrays had deployed and the first critical operations were done. NASASpaceflight, 10/20 · The Register, 10/22 Europe's Mars Express, in orbit since 2003, plans to photograph the landing site.

Stanford, reported 10/14. Bleached coral fragments recovered within seven weeks when placed in contact with a healthy fragment of the same colony, the algae crossing within three days and doubling every four, about ten times faster than in the wild, while bleached fragments kept apart died. The lead author's line: bleached corals may be dying, but they are not dead yet. Stanford, 10/14 Ten pairs, in a lab, in a paper this paper has not read past its press release.

Stories this paper has led with, that no longer lead, and that are not finished. They get a paragraph and a number here until they resolve. Nothing leaves this paper by being forgotten.

Irkutsk: the conference that moved now has an order number, the institute's own site has caught up with its conference's, and none of the five parties this paper asked has answered. The early read this paper published on the morning of October 22 found the conference's website moved from October 21 and 22 to November 11 and 12 with an amendment to its founding order linked and unreadable, while the institute's site still said October. Early Read, 10/22 By Friday morning the institute's site carried, under the October announcement it has not removed, a new notice: in accordance with an order of the Federal Service for the Protection of Consumer Rights and Human Welfare dated October 21, 2026, No. 832, the XVIII interstate conference will take place on November 11 and 12, 2026, with a third information letter attached that gives the same dates, the same hotel, and asks participants to re-register by October 26. Irkutsk institute, read 10/23 · Information letter No. 3 The amendment file on Yandex Disk is unchanged since its upload at 15:57 UTC on October 21, by the service's own metadata, and the service's outage notice was still on its page on Friday, so the text has still not been read. Yandex Disk metadata · Conference site The order's number and date are new facts; its reason is still not public. On the death itself, nothing moved. WHO's notice of October 10 still classes it as pneumonia of undetermined etiology and carries no amendment on its page, though the agency's feed shows the item's metadata last modified on October 13, three days after publication, which this paper prints and cannot explain; the feed's newest item is a MERS notice for Saudi Arabia on October 15. WHO DON620 · WHO DON feed The governor's channel has nothing on the case since its digest of October 5 to 11. Kobzev, Telegram The week 43 report this paper and its early read expected from Europe's disease agency on Friday is not coming in that form: the agency's archive now says the weekly series ended in October and that updates run daily on a public health events page, whose entry for the Russian event is dated October 12 and has not been added to since, while its Ebola entry has been updated every day. ECDC weekly reports · ECDC events, 10/22 No Russian or international outlet this paper could find has reported the case, the conference's move or order No. 832 since October 8. The five requests this paper sent on October 20 passed their last deadline at 4 p.m. Central on Thursday with no reply from WHO, the institute, the conference's organizers, RFE/RL or the Biodefense Commission; the nine further requests the early read said were in preparation had not left this paper's mailbox by press time. Calls #57, #58 and #59 (75, 70 and 85 percent) carry their seven days and enter the ledger next issue; on the record as it stands, no cause has been named, DON620 has no update, and no visit has been announced.

DR Congo Ebola: the national count is 448 short of 10,000, WHO has not published for fifteen days, Kenya's cluster is nine, and Nigeria has its first case. The Congolese public-health institute's situation report of October 19, as the European agency carries it, counts 9,552 confirmed cases and 4,602 deaths in 66 of 178 health zones across eight provinces, up from 9,455 and 4,561 two days earlier, with Nord-Ubangi newly affected; the week to October 11 had brought 463 cases and 233 deaths by the British agency's reading, and Ituri's new cases were falling while North Kivu's continued. ECDC, 10/20 · ECDC events, 10/22 · UKHSA week 41, updated 10/22 WHO's newest figure is still the one in its notice of October 8, 8,728 confirmed and 4,205 dead as of October 6, with a seven-day average of 72 new cases a day; its event page lists fourteen notices on the outbreak and none newer, and its feed on Friday morning had nothing on the Congo after October 8. WHO DON619, 10/8 · WHO event page · WHO DON feed Kenya's health ministry confirmed a ninth case on October 20, a close relative of the first patient who was already in quarantine, in a single cluster with 134 of 135 contacts traced and no sign of spread beyond them; the European agency still had eight. Nairametrics, 10/21 · AP via NY1, 10/20 The same day Nigeria confirmed its first case of the outbreak, a woman who flew from Uganda to Abuja, fell ill on October 7, sought care on the 11th and tested positive on the 20th, with 44 contacts; Africa CDC's chief called it already the most geographically widespread Ebola outbreak in history. AFP via Ahram, 10/20 · ECDC events, 10/22 The State Department moved Kenya to a reconsider-travel advisory, by a Nairobi station's report. Capital FM, 10/20 Patients are not named here.

Call #46 (65 percent, settles December 31) is OPEN, tracking YES, and the risk this paper named last week has arrived on schedule: WHO's publishing interval for this outbreak had been 13 to 15 days since August, which put the next notice around October 22, and there is none. WHO DON feed The national count needs 448 more to pass 10,000, about a week at the recent rate; the WHO count the call reads needs 1,272 more and a notice to print it in. A new call on the notice is in the New Calls.

US measles: 4,410 cases, a third federal death, Pennsylvania at 1,317 and five, and no answer to Congress. The CDC's update of October 16, with data as of October 15, counts 4,410 confirmed cases, 4,392 of them in 47 jurisdictions and 18 among international visitors, 42 outbreaks, 96 percent outbreak-associated, and three deaths, where last week's page said two; the figure is still marked subject to change. CDC, 10/16 That is 330 more than the week before, and the Oct 23 update had not posted when this paper read the page early Friday. Pennsylvania counted 1,317 cases in 43 counties on October 21, 31 new since October 19, 251 hospitalised and five deaths, and said its nurses had given more than 10,000 doses of vaccine since late April. PA DOH, 10/21 The written answers 31 members of Congress asked the CDC director to give by October 16, on why the federal death count is lower than Pennsylvania's alone, were not found on any page this paper read; the federal count moved from two to three in the week they were due, and Pennsylvania's is five. Becker's, 10/9 PAHO's standing notice puts the review of the United States in November during the commission's regular meeting, and no new item on it was found this week. PAHO, 3/2

Call #50 (65 percent, settles November 30) is OPEN, tracking YES: 591 to go in about six updates, under 100 a week, after a week that brought 330. Call #32 (55 percent, settles about November 30) is OPEN, meeting dated, publication date still unknown.

Nepal and Tibet: the same numbers, and the first district verifying its missing. The disaster authority still gives more than 1,400 dead and more than 5,200 missing from the Bhotekoshi flood, with no as-of date, 636 of the missing foreigners, and DNA taken from more than 1,300 bodies and remains; verification under the gazetted procedure of October 9 began in Makawanpur for 58 missing people, with ward details due October 28 and November 4. Kathmandu Post, 10/15 · Kathmandu Post, 10/14 Neither report mentions the 45-day period this paper printed last week; the procedure as reported runs on a ward notice of up to five days and three days for objections, and the correction is in Corrections.

Sudan: the famine alert stands, and the September 30 question is now an October one. Nothing newer than the IPC alert of October 12 was found: famine risk in Greater Darfur and Greater Kordofan in a worst case through January, 8.58 million displaced nationally, more than 300,000 displaced in Greater Kordofan since late 2025, and the 2026 response plan 57 percent unfunded as of October 8. Sudan Tribune, 10/13 The UN migration agency's shelter stocks, forecast to run out at the end of September, still have no published answer, and the World Food Programme's last stock warning for El-Obeid, in July, said its stocks would be exhausted in October on the plans of the time. WFP, 7/21 The question stays on this page.

Elsewhere, labelled. The World Trade Center Health Program's page was last updated on October 16 with two administrative items of October 13 and no new finding. CDC WTC, 10/16 PAHO's last item on Hurricane Polo is still September 29: no deaths in Baja California Sur by preliminary assessment, and the two dead and three missing in Jalisco that this paper has carried since. PAHO, 9/29 The Okinawa case and Kadena's new rules are in the Pacific; Ceuta is in the Border.

Friday 10/23. Anthropic's public prospectus, by the reporting this paper could not confirm. SBS citing Reuters, 10/23 The World Series opens in Milwaukee at 8:08 p.m. Eastern, Rays at Brewers, Drew Rasmussen against Jacob Misiorowski, on Fox. Pitcher List, 10/20 Italy's checks on arrivals from Spain end unless renewed, a day after Spain's on arrivals from Italy. Euronews, 10/16 The CDC's weekly measles update is expected. CDC
Saturday 10/24. Game 2 in Milwaukee at 8 p.m. Eastern. NBC Los Angeles, 10/19 College football, all Eastern: Indiana at Michigan, LSU at Auburn and Pitt at No. 1 Miami at noon; Gridiron picks G16 and G17, Tennessee at South Carolina and BYU at UCF, at 3:30, with Texas A&M at Alabama; No. 7 Ole Miss at No. 19 Texas at 7:30; Houston at Utah at 10:15. ESPN scoreboard, 10/24 · FBSchedules, 10/18 Game 4 of the WNBA Finals in Atlanta at 1 p.m. Eastern, the Dream up two games to one. NBC Washington, 10/16 Qualifying in Austin. Formula1.com Brazil's final polls. Viva, 10/20
Sunday 10/25. Brazil's presidential runoff. Reuters via Internazionale, 10/23 Bulgaria's presidential election, with a runoff on November 1 if needed. BNR, 7/29 The NFL in Paris at 9:30 a.m. Eastern, Steelers against Saints, and Gridiron pick G18, Broncos at Cardinals, at 4:05. NFL.com, Week 7 · ESPN scoreboard, Week 7 The United States Grand Prix in Austin at 3 p.m. Central. Formula1.com About now the Congolese Ebola count passes 10,000, on this paper's arithmetic; call #46 waits for WHO. ECDC, 10/20
Monday 10/26. Sweden's Speaker receives Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist's report at 10:00, then a press release or press conference. Riksdagen, 10/23 Egypt's parliament votes on forces for Saudi Arabia. Reuters via Internazionale, 10/22 Registration for the Irkutsk conference closes, by its site. Conference site Game 3 at Tampa Bay; the Senate's next pro forma session at 5:30 p.m. Senate Press Gallery
Tuesday 10/27. Israel's Knesset election, polls open 7 a.m. to 10 p.m. Al Jazeera, 10/20 Three Ceuta councillors testify before Judge Tardón. Moncloa.com, 10/20 The FOMC's two-day meeting opens; Coca-Cola reports before the open and SK hynix is listed. Federal Reserve · 24/7 Wall St, 10/22 · Yahoo Finance, SKHY
Wednesday 10/28. The FOMC's decision at 2 p.m. Eastern and the chair's press conference at 2:30, no projections this round; call #51 settles, and it is the first of call #39's two chances. Federal Reserve The Bank of Canada decides the same morning, at 9:45 a.m. Eastern, with its Monetary Policy Report. Bank of Canada Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close. SignalStack, 10/22 The ECB's meeting opens; the EIA's weekly report. ECB · EIA Latvia's prime minister-designate meets his coalition partners. LSM via EU Agenda, 10/20
Thursday 10/29. PJM's promised filing day; call #52 settles. PJM presentation, 10/22 The ECB's decision and press conference; third-quarter GDP's advance estimate and September PCE at 8:30 a.m. Eastern; Intel after the close; Amazon the same evening by one calendar. ECB · BEA · Intel, 10/6 · CM Elite Group The EU's energy ministers meet. EUCO 14/26 The Bank of Japan's meeting opens. Bank of Japan
Friday 10/30. The Bank of Japan decides, with its outlook report. Bank of Japan The December Brent contract expires, by ICE's calendar. ICE expiry calendar The employment cost index at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. BLS Game 6 of the World Series if needed, in Milwaukee; Game 7 on Saturday. NBC Los Angeles, 10/19
Sunday 11/1. American daylight time ends. Bulgaria's runoff if needed; the New York City Marathon; the Mexico City Grand Prix at 2 p.m. local; the seven OPEC+ countries meet, on a date this paper has still not read on OPEC's own site. BNR, 7/29 · Special Olympics MA · Formula1.com · Xinhua via Bernama, 10/4
Monday 11/2. Apple reports after the close; the Supreme Court's November session begins. SignalStack, 10/22 · Supreme Court
Tuesday 11/3. US midterm elections; call #45 settles. Latvia's new parliament first sits. LSM via UA.News, 10/6
Wednesday 11/4. Israel's official results, and the EU's enlargement package. Al Jazeera, 10/20 · The New Union Post, 10/16
Thursday 11/5. The Bank of England decides, with its monetary policy report. Bank of England Lloyd's List's next Hormuz brief. Lloyd's List Intelligence, 10/22 France's unions' national strike day. DH.net/AFP, 10/18
Friday 11/6. The October jobs report, 8:30 a.m. Eastern; no revised date on the agency's lapse page. BLS · BLS revised dates Call #61 settles: WHO's next Ebola notice, or not. WHO DON feed
Sunday 11/8. The Marines' curfew in Okinawa and Kadena's alcohol ban both end unless extended. Stars and Stripes, 10/23
Monday 11/9. The Senate returns at 3 p.m., with a cloture vote at about 5:30 on the permitting bill's vehicle. Senate Press Gallery COP31 opens in Antalya, to November 20. UNFCCC At 11:59 p.m., the 178 Section 301 exclusions expire unless extended. USTR exclusions page
Tuesday 11/10. October CPI and the EIA's next outlook; call #56 settles; the NFL's trade deadline at 4 p.m. Eastern. BLS · EIA STEO schedule · Chargers.com, 10/21
Tuesday 11/10 to Friday 11/13. PAHO's verification commission meets; call #32. PAHO, 10/14
Wednesday 11/11 and Thursday 11/12. The Irkutsk conference, by the institute's site and order No. 832; call #60. Irkutsk institute COP31's leaders' summit. UNFCCC Venezuela's fourth round of dialogue opens, to November 15. Efecto Cocuyo, 10/22 The Climate Prediction Center's next El Niño discussion on the 12th. CPC
Friday 11/13. An informal meeting of EU leaders in Dublin; Spain's campaign opens; call #60 settles. Irish presidency · La Moncloa, 10/5
Wednesday 11/18 to Thursday 11/19. APEC in Shenzhen. Briefs, 10/21
Wednesday 11/25 to Friday 11/27. The EU and Western Balkans summit, then the special European Council of November 26 and 27 in Brussels, agenda unposted; Thanksgiving on the 26th. Council calendar
About Saturday 11/28. The executive order's 60 days run out for a proposed legal definition of Super Intelligence. Federal Register, 10/2
Sunday 11/29. Spain votes. La Moncloa, 10/5
Monday 11/30. Calls #26 (Venezuela), #40 (Swedish PM), #48 (one hurricane), #49 (Anthropic on EDGAR), #50 (measles above 5,000) and #53 (the arena test) settle, and #32 about then. The Atlantic season ends. NHC season table
December. Call #29 (Sudan) by December 1 and #33 (Guinea-Bissau) on December 6, with the Gambia voting on the 5th. The Point, 10/10/2025 The FOMC on December 8 and 9, call #39's last chance. Federal Reserve PJM's 2029/30 auction opens December 9, results December 22, call #17. FERC order, 9/29 The UN's Sudan sanctions regime and US federal funding both expire December 11. Darfur24, 10/9 · AHA, 9/1 The G20 at Doral on December 14 and 15. Wikipedia The ECB on the 17th and the European Council on the 17th and 18th. ECB · Council calendar The grid-equipment rule's 120 days run out December 24 on this paper's arithmetic, and call #30 settles about December 25. The BWC meeting of states parties, on dates this paper could not read, is call #59's clock. And on December 31: calls #36, #39, #42, #43, #44, #46, #47, #54, #55, #57, #58 and #62, and #59 if the BWC meeting has not closed by then.
Sunday 1/10/2027. The date both governments give for the end of the trade truce. Reuters via Internazionale, 9/28 Call #5 settles in mid-January.

Every official call this paper has made, running week to week. This table appears in every issue until the calls settle. No call leaves this table by being forgotten.

Calls #57 through #62 carry seven days and enter this table next issue: #57 to #59 from the early read of October 22, and #60 to #62 from this issue's New Calls. The gridiron line is tallied separately and never enters it. Row 31 is graded this issue, argued, and the case against it is in the Scorecard.

Sorted by kind, worst first.

Corrected: the length of South Korea's Hoguk exercise. Issue 13's Week Ahead called it a five-day exercise beginning October 19. The Joint Chiefs' schedule, as Yonhap carries it, runs it from October 19 to October 30, with American forces taking part. Issue 13 · Korea Times, 10/20 The Pacific has it.

Suspended, not corrected: Nepal's 45 days. Issue 13 printed that people missing in disasters can be declared dead after 45 days. Neither of this week's reports on the procedure mentions such a period; as reported, verification runs on a ward notice of up to five days and three days for objections. Kathmandu Post, 10/15 The 45 does not run again until it has a source.

Corrected: the S&P 500's close on October 15. Issue 13 printed 7,744.10. AP's table and Investing.com's both give 7,744.06. AP via La Nación, 10/15 · Investing.com, S&P 500 Four cents on a figure of seven thousand changes no argument, and it is printed because it was wrong.

Changed: facts that moved after press. Isaias's dead: Issue 13 printed four, two of them in Florida; the Florida Phoenix's account now puts Florida's alone at at least six. Florida Phoenix, 10/19 The fourth game of the American League series, printed for Friday, October 16, was played on Saturday. theScore, 10/17

Named, not corrected: figures other people disagree about. Hormuz traffic, three ways: Lloyd's List's 104 non-Iranian ships over 10,000 tons in the week of October 5 to 11, which is the count call #9 reads; UKMTO's 125 out and 129 in over seven days; and Central Command's 400 ships in the week to October 16. Lloyd's List Intelligence, 10/22 · Al Jazeera, 10/17 Russia's net loss of ground since September 1: 73 square kilometres in ISW's assessment of October 21 and 241 in its assessment of October 22, with no note on the change. ISW, 10/21 · ISW, 10/22 December Brent's settlement on October 19: $109.76 on Investing.com's table and $109.55 in the Reuters figures one wrap carries. Investing.com, Brent · EnergyNow, 10/20 OpenAI's catalogue count: 719 on GitHub's rendering of the main branch and 722 on a raw copy read the same morning; the Threshold has why this paper believes the 719. The dollar index on Thursday: two pages from the same vendor, 101.44 and 101.65. Each is printed where it falls.

Resolved: items left open last issue. Bank of America's results are read from its own filing, and a $1.2 billion charge explains the gap between its figure and the consensus. Bank of America 8-K, 10/14 The October Empire State survey read 25.5. Trading Economics, Empire State The Fed chair's last remarks before the blackout said nothing on policy. Startup Fortune, 10/22 The WNBA Finals opened at Chase Center. Boston Globe, 10/19 A soccer result came from an opened page, UEFA's own. UEFA And a Kpler figure for Hormuz was found, by relay: oil flows of 11.6 million barrels a day in the seven days to October 13, about 68 percent of the pre-war rate, which is a measure of barrels and not of ships and so is printed beside the count call #9 reads, not in place of it. Al Jazeera, 10/17

Named: rulings owed before outcomes, not after. Two of the three owed last issue are made this issue: call #9's count, in the Wire, and call #43's scope, in the Border. Call #42's, whether a compact suit against the Upper Basin is a suit challenging the Record of Decision, is owed for a second issue. Issue 13 The eight season-two changes printed in Issue 12 remain proposals, and the season's verdict remains the founder's.

Named: the re-run this paper keeps not running. The plan of September 23 to check OpenAI's Navier-Stokes proof itself, four checks in all, has still not been run. This is the third issue running to say so. Issue 13

Named: a call this paper nearly logged wrong. A price call on Brent was written against the December contract, which expires on October 30, before the date the call would have settled. It was caught on the second read the season-two rules require and is printed in the New Calls as a near miss instead of being logged. ICE expiry calendar

Named: what could not be read. The text of Irkutsk's order No. 832 and any reason for the move. Spain's and Italy's border-check decisions of October 22 and 23. Bosnia's certification. OPEC's own page for its November 1 meeting. The dates of the BWC meeting that call #59 reads. ICE's settlement for Thursday's Brent. Taiwan's daily reports for the mornings of October 22 and 23. The outcome of the censure motions in Japan's Diet. The Washoe County order itself, its case number and its date, all under seal. Japan's weather agency on Champi. The drought monitor's national categories. The result of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve exchange. The score of the third game of the WNBA Finals, and a second source for Thursday's Bears and Patriots result. Ether fund flows, the CLARITY Act's status and exchange candles for Bitcoin and Ether. The fact-checking desks of AP, Reuters, the Washington Post and CNN. And Friday's markets, which this issue does not cover.

Named: how this issue was made. Fourteen research desks ran before dawn on Friday, October 23, each with a hard cap on web searches, and the caps summed to 238 against a shared limit of 200. That is the arithmetic Issue 12 got wrong and Issue 13 got right, and this issue got it wrong again: the desks that ran late found the shared budget spent and recorded the refusals instead of routing around them. The fetch tool refused primary pages that a search had not surfaced and twice ran out its hourly limit. A second pass of twelve desks, capped at 124 searches, ran on the gaps before 7 a.m. Central. The editor read the pages that settle this issue's calls directly, in a browser, where the fetch tool would not: EDGAR, the Hurricane Center, the CDC, WHO's feed, the Irkutsk institute, the Riksdag and the box scores. A usage limit on the tools this paper is made with then stopped the work early on Friday morning, and the issue was finished in the afternoon, which is why an issue due Friday morning posts later. This paper prints its process failures the same way it prints everyone else's, and this week the first three items on this list are its own.

Free. Stays free. Every call is on the ledger until it settles.

Next Commit.

In Service, -Tim