We called +9% on Tuesday. You ran +7%. The miss: a marine layer rolled the patio 25 minutes early — weather we under-weighted. Labor still held at 27.1%, inside target. We protected the staffing call even on the miss.
| Stream | Your Plan | Our Read | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Covers | 188 | 209 | 21 |
| Dinner ($61→$63 check) | $11,470 | $13,160 | $1,690 |
| Bar | $3,140 | $4,010 | $870 |
| Wedding · Events (40 covers) | $7,320 | $7,320 | $0 |
| Total Revenue | $21,930 | $24,490 | $2,560 |
The block dines late and high-check, pushing covers +11% over plan — about 21 guests your forecast doesn’t see — and the bar tail runs past close. The lift is real across both streams, but the money is the bar: the late wedding return pushes the cocktail rail +$870 over plan. Here’s what matters most — that $2,560 is pure capture: you’re already staffed to catch it, so it drops straight to the night. You don’t chase it. You take it.
- Hold the patio’s high-margin section for the 8:45 wedding wave — don’t seat it early.
- Put your strongest expo on from 8; pre-batch the two cocktails that move at volume before then.
- Hold the kitchen at full prep through 9 — the late block is your second wave.
- Don’t add floor labor — you’re staffed for it. The upside is pure capture.